This paper describes the development of an agile project management system. This research is relevant because of the feature of agile projects consisting of changing requirements. We developed the architecture of the backlog and tasks management system, including a duration prediction module. Using the developed system, managers have the opportunity to divide project processes into sprints depending on the prediction and value for the stakeholders. The authors propose a method for predicting agile project duration by formalising the application of expert Story Point evaluation and subsequent Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the developed method, an algorithm for the dynamic prediction of task duration was designed. Integration of the developed method into the system made it possible to reduce the assumptions and limitations associated with updating user story data and participation in the projects of new and cross-functional teams. The developed system allows managers to cope with agile project bottlenecks.
Идентификаторы и классификаторы
Incorrect project duration estimation leads to a risk of time and material costs. In particular, such errors impact the ratio of a project’s efficiency to its duration, i. e. its marginal utility. Overestimating a project’s duration may convince managers to reject projects that would bring benefits and opportunities to the entity. Thus, errors of the second kind arise when researchers skip the correct hypothesis from consideration. Duration underestimation not only leads to the approval of projects that do not produce the expected results but also entails serious financial and reputational losses for the team (Morgenshtern et al., 2007). In such cases, an error of the first kind occurs because an incorrect prediction is accepted by a specialist.
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The present paper develops an invariant ontology of strategic interaction in a sociotechnical system using game theory tools. In the course of the research, ontologies are considered tools for modelling sociotechnical systems, including tools for social and technical process integration. The demand for these tools derives from the need to integrate people into technical systems as equivalent and equal elements that exert both external and internal influence on the system. Such sociotechnical models have already been applied to describe enterprise information structures, but they lack a description of decision-making between the system elements within the strategic inter-action. As part of the solution to this problem, an ontology-based model of a sociotechnical system describing the interaction of both social and technical elements through game interaction is developed. Each of the participants in the interaction is described in terms of game theory, with the allocation of possible strategies and the corre-sponding winnings. Through the interactive entities within the game theory model, game interaction takes place between the participant and appropriate behaviour strategy selection. The model is a exible, scalable tool for building simulation models of sociotechnical systems. The results obtained will be tested when real sociotechnical systems are built, and the ontology will be re ned according to the results obtained.
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